（下边有中文翻译请继续看到底。 谢谢。）

For decades, European nations have prioritized economic development and social welfare over military expansion. 几十年来，欧洲国家优先考虑经济发展和社会福利，而不是军事扩张。

The Shift in European Defense Posture

In recent years, Europe has undergone a notable shift in its defense strategies, with several nations contemplating the enhancement of their military capabilities, including the potential development of nuclear weapons. This shift raises critical concerns regarding public welfare, economic stability, and global security.

For decades, European nations have prioritized economic development and social welfare over military expansion. The devastation of World War II led to a collective commitment to peace and reconstruction, resulting in the establishment of robust welfare states. However, the ongoing geopolitical shifts—especially the war in Ukraine—have compelled European nations to reassess their security policies.

The conflict in Ukraine has exposed vulnerabilities in Europe’s security architecture, heightening concerns over Russian aggression. This has led to renewed discussions on strengthening defense capabilities, particularly among key European powers. French President Emmanuel Macron has been vocal about modernizing France’s nuclear arsenal, announcing a €1.5 billion investment in an air base to host advanced Rafale jets armed with next-generation hypersonic missiles by 2035. Macron has also proposed extending France’s nuclear protection to other European countries to enhance continental defense autonomy.

Germany, traditionally hesitant to engage in aggressive military expansion, is undergoing a paradigm shift. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has pushed for amending the German constitution to facilitate increased military spending, a move reflecting Germany’s growing concern over European security.

Poland, sharing borders with both Russia and Ukraine, has been particularly proactive. The Polish government has sought the stationing of American nuclear weapons on its soil as a deterrent against potential Russian hostilities. Moreover, there have been internal discussions about Poland developing an independent nuclear deterrent, although such an initiative would face significant diplomatic and logistical challenges.

Economic Implications

The shift towards heightened military expenditure carries substantial economic ramifications. Allocating vast portions of national budgets to military expansion could strain public finances, diverting funds from essential social services such as healthcare, education, and infrastructure. While some European nations, particularly Germany and France, have the financial capability to absorb increased defense spending, many others may struggle to balance these competing demands.

The European Commission has proposed a “European Military Sales Mechanism,” designed to centralize arms procurement across the EU, aiming to bolster defense capabilities while supporting domestic arms manufacturers. This initiative reflects an effort to alleviate individual financial burdens on member states while strengthening collective security.

The Perils of a Nuclear Arms Race

The possibility of a nuclear arms race in Europe is deeply troubling. The development and proliferation of nuclear weapons would significantly heighten the risk of catastrophic conflict, endangering millions of lives. While technologically advanced European nations possess the capability to develop nuclear weapons, doing so would likely escalate tensions, undermine global non-proliferation efforts, and potentially provoke retaliatory measures from adversaries.

The Euro-Atlantic Security Leadership Group (EASLG) has emphasized the necessity of reaffirming the principle that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” They advocate for strategic risk reduction and adherence to international treaties aimed at curbing nuclear proliferation.

Statements from European Leaders

European leaders have expressed divergent views on this issue:

Emmanuel Macron, President of France: “Given the potential absence or significant reduction of American presence, this is our time as a nation to step up to the plate and take leadership on defense for the European continent.”

Friedrich Merz, Chancellor of Germany: “We must modify our constitution to bolster military spending, ensuring our nation’s security in these uncertain times.”

Andrzej Duda, Former President of Poland: “Stationing American nuclear weapons on Polish soil is a necessary deterrent against Russian aggression.”

A Balanced Strategy for Defense and Welfare

To address these challenges, a balanced strategy is imperative—one that ensures national security without undermining public welfare or global stability. The following measures can help achieve this objective:

• Enhanced Conventional Defense Cooperation: European nations should strengthen their conventional military capabilities through collaborative efforts. Joint training exercises, intelligence sharing, and coordinated defense initiatives can enhance security without necessitating nuclear proliferation.

• Collective Defense Procurement: The European Military Sales Mechanism can optimize defense spending by centralizing procurement. By pooling resources, EU member states can achieve economies of scale, thereby reducing individual financial burdens while maintaining robust defense capabilities.

• Reaffirmation of Non-Proliferation Commitments: European countries must uphold and strengthen their commitments to nuclear non-proliferation treaties. Diplomatic efforts should focus on reinforcing existing agreements and promoting global disarmament initiatives.

• Investment in Advanced Defense Technologies: Instead of pursuing nuclear weapons, European nations should allocate resources toward research and development of advanced, non-nuclear defense technologies. Cybersecurity, missile defense systems, and artificial intelligence-driven military advancements can provide strategic advantages without escalating nuclear tensions.

• Public Engagement and Transparency: Governments must engage with their citizens to explain defense strategies and spending priorities. Public discourse ensures greater transparency, enabling informed discussions about the balance between security and social welfare.

• Diplomatic Initiatives for Conflict Resolution: Prioritizing diplomatic solutions to conflicts, particularly the war in Ukraine, can reduce the perceived need for nuclear deterrence. Engaging in dialogue with adversaries and supporting international mediation efforts are crucial for long-term stability.

Summary

Europe stands at a critical juncture, facing the challenge of enhancing its defense capabilities while preserving the social welfare systems that have defined its identity for decades. While security concerns are legitimate, the pursuit of nuclear weapons presents significant risks to global stability and humanity.

A balanced approach that emphasizes defense cooperation, technological innovation, and diplomatic engagement can ensure security without compromising peace and prosperity. By maintaining a commitment to non-proliferation and fostering international cooperation, European nations can navigate these turbulent times while upholding the principles of stability, economic resilience, and global security.

欧洲防务态势的转变

近年来，欧洲的防务战略发生了显著转变，一些国家正在考虑增强其军事能力，包括发展核武器的可能性。这种转变引发了对公共福利、经济稳定和全球安全的重大担忧。

几十年来，欧洲国家优先考虑经济发展和社会福利，而不是军事扩张。第二次世界大战的破坏导致了对和平与重建的集体承诺，从而建立了强大的福利国家。然而，持续的地缘政治变化——尤其是乌克兰战争——迫使欧洲国家重新评估其安全政策。

乌克兰冲突暴露了欧洲安全架构的脆弱性，加剧了人们对俄罗斯侵略的担忧。这引发了关于加强防务能力的新一轮讨论，尤其是在主要的欧洲大国之间。法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙（Emmanuel Macron）一直在大力推进法国核武库的现代化，他宣布投资15亿欧元建设一个空军基地，到2035年，该基地将容纳配备下一代高超音速导弹的先进阵风战机。马克龙还提议将法国的核保护扩大到其他欧洲国家，以增强大陆防务自主权。

传统上对积极的军事扩张犹豫不决的德国，正在经历一种模式的转变。德国总理弗里德里希·梅尔茨（Friedrich Merz）推动修改德国宪法，为增加军费开支提供便利，此举反映出德国对欧洲安全的担忧日益加剧。

与俄罗斯和乌克兰接壤的波兰尤其积极主动。波兰政府一直在寻求美国在其领土上部署核武器，作为对俄罗斯潜在敌对行动的威慑。此外，波兰内部已经就发展独立的核威慑力量进行了讨论，尽管这样的倡议将面临重大的外交和后勤挑战。

经济影响

向增加军事开支的转变带来了重大的经济后果。将国家预算的很大一部分用于军事扩张可能会使公共财政紧张，转移医疗、教育和基础设施等基本社会服务的资金。虽然一些欧洲国家，特别是德国和法国，有财政能力吸收增加的国防开支，但许多其他国家可能难以平衡这些相互竞争的需求。

欧盟委员会提出了一个“欧洲军售机制”，旨在集中整个欧盟的武器采购，旨在加强国防能力，同时支持国内武器制造商。这一倡议反映了在加强集体安全的同时减轻成员国个别财政负担的努力。

核军备竞赛的危险

欧洲发生核军备竞赛的可能性令人深感不安。核武器的发展和扩散将大大增加发生灾难性冲突的危险，危及数百万人的生命。虽然技术先进的欧洲国家拥有发展核武器的能力，但这样做可能会加剧紧张局势，破坏全球不扩散努力，并可能引发对手的报复措施。

欧洲-大西洋安全领导小组（EASLG）强调有必要重申“核战争没有赢家，也绝不能打”的原则。他们主张减少战略风险并遵守旨在遏制核扩散的国际条约。

欧洲领导人的声明

欧洲领导人在这个问题上表达了不同的观点：

法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙（Emmanuel Macron）：“鉴于美国的存在可能会缺席或大幅减少，现在是我们作为一个国家挺身而出，领导欧洲大陆防务的时候了。”

德国总理Friedrich Merz：“我们必须修改我们的宪法来支持军事开支，确保我们国家在这个不确定时期的安全。”

波兰前总统安杰伊·杜达（Andrzej Duda）：“在波兰领土上部署美国核武器是对俄罗斯侵略的必要威慑。”

国防和福利的平衡战略

为了应对这些挑战，一项平衡的战略势在必行，既要确保国家安全，又不损害公共福利或全球稳定。以下措施可以帮助实现这一目标：

加强常规防务合作：欧洲国家应通过合作加强常规军事能力。联合训练演习、情报共享和协调防御行动可以在不需要核扩散的情况下改善安全。

集体防务采购：欧洲军售机制可以通过集中采购来优化防务开支。通过集中资源，欧盟成员国可以实现规模经济，从而在保持强大防御能力的同时减少个人财政负担。

重申不扩散承诺：欧洲国家必须坚持和加强其对核不扩散条约的承诺。外交努力应侧重于加强现有协定和促进全球裁军倡议。

对先进防御技术的投资：欧洲国家不应追求核武器，而应将资源分配给先进的非核防御技术的研究和开发。网络安全、导弹防御系统和人工智能驱动的军事进步可以在不加剧核紧张局势的情况下提供战略优势。

公众参与和透明度：政府必须与公民接触，解释国防战略和支出重点。公共讨论确保了更大的透明度，使人们能够就安全和社会福利之间的平衡进行知情的讨论。

解决冲突的外交举措：优先考虑冲突的外交解决方案，特别是乌克兰战争，可以减少对核威慑的需要。与对手进行对话并支持国际调解努力对长期稳定至关重要。

总结

欧洲正处于一个关键时刻，面临着增强其防御能力的挑战，同时保持几十年来定义其身份的社会福利制度。虽然安全关切是合理的，但谋求核武器对全球稳定和人类构成重大风险。

强调国防合作、技术创新和外交接触的平衡方法可以在不损害和平与繁荣的情况下确保安全。通过保持对不扩散的承诺和促进国际合作，欧洲国家可以在坚持稳定、经济弹性和全球安全原则的同时渡过动荡的时期。

(  注意： 本文是用AI翻译的，或有误差。请以原版英文为准。谢谢。)